Outbreak Control

A novel pathogen has entered the population. R₀ = 3.2. Every infected person is passing it to 3+ others. Hospitals have 300 ICU beds. You have three levers: vaccination speed, contact reduction, and public awareness.

The hard part: acting early looks unnecessary. Wait until it's obvious, and it's already too late. The delays in this system are the lesson.

Win conditions

Keep mortality below 2% of total population
Achieve herd immunity ≥ 70% (Recovered + Vaccinated)
Survive 20 weeks without 3+ consecutive hospital overflows

Fail conditions

Hospital overflow for 3+ consecutive weeks
Mortality exceeds 2% of population

<\!-- Chart area -->

<\!-- Top stat cards row -->

<\!-- Rₑ card -->

Effective Rₑ

3.20

Growing fast

<\!-- Herd immunity card -->

Herd Immunity

Target: 70%

<\!-- Mortality card -->

Mortality

0.00%

Limit: 2.00%

<\!-- Infections card -->

Infected now

1.0%

100 people

<\!-- Population dot grid -->

Population (10,000)

Susceptible

Infected

Recovered

Vaccinated

<\!-- Area chart -->

Epidemic curve

<\!-- Hospital gauge -->

🏥 ICU capacity (300 beds)

0 / 300 beds

<\!-- Sidebar -->

<\!-- Epidemiology stats -->

Epidemiology

Basic R₀ 3.20

Effective Rₑ 3.20

Total infected 100

Deaths (cumulative) 0

Mortality rate 0.00%

Herd immunity % 0.0%

<\!-- Conditions --> <\!-- Feedback loops -->

Active loops

Transmission

More infected → more new infections → more infected. Reinforcing until susceptibles depleted.

Recovery

Infected recover → become immune → reduces active spread.

Behavior change

Rising cases → awareness → contact reduction → lower Rₑ.

Hospital overflow

Overflow → no ICU beds → 3× mortality → less immunity → more susceptibles.

<\!-- Phase -->